Journal article
Trajectories toward the 1.5 degrees C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Benjamin J Henley, Andrew D King
Geophysical Research Letters | Wiley | Published : 2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073480
Abstract
Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent..
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Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)
Awarded by Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Funding Acknowledgements
B.H. receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Project LP150100062. A.K. receives funding through the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028). B.H. is an Associate Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. We acknowledge the support of the NCI facility in Australia. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The data used in this study are publicly available from the CMIP5 model repositories, NOAA, NASA, and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.